By the UNESCO Institute for Statistics and the Global Education Monitoring Report
Countries have collectively committed to reduce their out-of-school population by 165 million by 2030 in their SDG 4 benchmark targets, as we reported in the 2025 SDG 4 Scorecard released last week. But the challenge they face is larger than previously thought. The global out-of-school population is now estimated to have been 272 million in 2023, 21 million more than the last estimate, based on the UIS and GEM Report model results, also featured in the Scorecard.
Two reasons explain this upward adjustment. First, new enrolment and attendance data account for 8 million, or 38%, of the increase. The ban on girls attending secondary school age in Afghanistan in 2021 also contributes to this increase.
Second, updated UN population estimates account for 13 million, or the remaining 62%, of the increase. Compared to the estimates last used in the out-of-school model, the 2024 World Population Prospects estimate that the number of 6- to 17-year-olds in 2025 (a proxy of the school age population) is higher by 49 million (or by 3.1%).
The change in the global population estimates impacts out-of-school rate and population estimates – but the magnitude of that impact depends on the source of data on enrolment and attendance. If the source is administrative data, then the full increase of the population is passed on to the out-of-school population because there is no fresh information on enrolment. But if the source is survey data, then the increase of the population is passed on to the in-school and out-of-school populations proportionately. As the model relies on survey data for many countries with large out-of-school populations, only part of the increased school-age population is estimated to be out of school.
In total, around 11% of primary school-age children (78 million), 15% of lower secondary school age adolescents (64 million) and 31% of upper secondary school age youth (130 million) are out of school.
Source: UIS and GEM Report out-of-school estimation model.
These updates can be found on VIEW, a website managed by the UIS and the GEM Report, which features the out-of-school rate model results. The model, introduced in 2022, uses multiple data sources (i.e. administrative, survey and census) to generate internally consistent trends of regional and global averages.
The model at the country level reconciles different sources, imputes values on years when there are no data, and involves short-term projections. Therefore, they are not the same as countries’ official out-of-school values, which are based on a single source on a given year. It is these latter values, which are the basis for countries’ out-of-school rate targets to be achieved by 2025 and 2030. Collectively, as the SDG 4 Scorecard shows, countries will reduce their out-of-school population by 165 million by 2030 if they meet their targets. However, it is projected that by 2025 countries will be off track by four percentage points among those of primary and lower secondary school age and by six percentage points among those of upper secondary school age. In total, this means that, already by 2025, countries will be off-track by 75 million relative to their national targets.
The impact of conflict on out-of-school populations is being underestimated
The out-of-school model estimates assume stable patterns of school-age population progression through the education system. However, this methodological strength becomes a weakness in the case of emergencies and crises when school attendance changes suddenly. Not only can it not be assumed that long-term trends will continue, but there is usually no information or insufficient information to understand crises’ short- and medium-term impacts. Conflict hampers data collection on school participation and therefore is likely to lead to an underestimation of the out-of-school populations.
In February 2024, the Education Data and Statistics Conference decided that model estimates be complemented with external information with guidance from established a task force. In March 2024, a blog proposed a way to assess the extent to which out-of-school populations were underestimated.
Accordingly, the 2025 SDG 4 Scorecard reports the results of an analysis that tries to reconcile the model estimates with external information in the 10 countries most affected by conflict following the International Rescue Committee’s Watchlist classification. Information from humanitarian or other sources was compiled and reviewed with reference to the population described (e.g. a report may cover a population larger than that of school age), the measure of education participation (e.g. a report may describe a population whose education is ‘at risk’ which is not the same as not being in school), and geographic coverage.
This analysis, which is presented in the SDG 4 Scorecard, indicates that almost 13 million more would need to be added to the estimated global out-of-school population. This number includes large underestimates in Myanmar and Sudan (where there have been no data since conflict began) and a first estimate for Somalia (3.7 million) where no data had ever been available before. Next steps will involve an expert review of the estimates suggested for these 10 countries and a process by which these ad hoc estimates will become a regular feature of reporting on out-of-school populations.
Global out-of-school population, model estimate and adjustment for conflict, 2023
Source: Analysis of documents from 10 conflict-affected countries: Burkina Faso, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Mali, Myanmar, Niger, State of Palestine, Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan.
Consult the VIEW website on the out-of-school model estimates.
Read the 2025 SDG 4 Scorecard, which focuses on the out-of-school rate.
